You are here: Home > Betting Guides > Breaking Down UFC On FX 1: The Main Card
Yesterday I broke down the main event of the first UFC On FX card, and below is the numbers breakdowns as well as my picks and betting ideas. This isn’t a great card to make outright bets on, but i think there are a few fights on the card to make some scratch with the odds the way they are.
Heayweight bout: Pat Barry (242) vs. Christian Morecraft (256)
Both Pat Barry and Christian Morecraft are looking to stay relevant int he heavyweight division. Barry, who is trying to rebound from a 2 fight losing streak and is under .500 at 3-4 in UFC, has been arguably given a little extra slack because of his popularity with fans. Morecraft, who lost his last fight and is 1-2 in the UFC, will most likely not have that luxury.
Barry has the skills to beat Morecraft, and people are quick to point out his extensive kick boxing experience. My main problem with that is we haven’t seen that from Barry in quite some time, and to put it bluntly finds a way to lose fights. Barry’s worst enemy in the octagon might be himself. A great example of this is his fight with Chiek Kongo. Barry dropped him three times in under 60 seconds, and even though Kongo was barely standing, Kongo cause Barry running in with his hands down and knocked him out cold.
Moorcraft knows Barry has much better stand up skills, and even though he will enjoy a 5-6 inch reach advantage, he will probably take this fight to the floor to control the pace of the fight. Barry doesn’t have much jiu jitsu defense, and his rear naked choke (without hooks) loss to Cro Cop is a glaring example of that.
Morecraft is my underdog pick on the card, and at the least is worth a solid look at +145.
Odds: -155 Reach: 75 in Record: 6-4 UFC Record: 3-4 Last 5: 2-3 Streak: -2
43% Fights Won 48% Striking Accuracy 0% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 100% TAKEDOWNS 0% SUBMISSIONS 0%
Win Breakdown 67% (2) KO/TKOS 33% (1) DECISION
Odds: +145 Reach: 81 in Record: 7-2 UFC Record: 1-2 Last 5: 3-2 Streak: -1
33% Fights Won 36% Striking Accuracy 67% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 29% TAKEDOWNS 31% SUBMISSIONS 40%
Win Breakdown 100% (1) SUBMISSION
Welterweight bout: Duane Ludwig (170.5) vs. Josh Neer (171)
The odds are close in this fight for a reason. Ludwig is riding some momentum for two reasons. The first one being his 2 fight win streak, and the second one being he was finally recognized by the UFC for the quickest knock out in UFC history. Ludwig is going to want to stand toe-to-toe with Neer, and if Neer obliges him in this regard he will have a short night. This isn’t Neer’s first rodeo, and I would count on that not happening.
Neer is riding a 5 fight win streak, and certainly has the skills to frustrate Ludwig’s game plan. That being said, Neer has way more ways to win this fight than Ludwig does, and if he can stay out of danger on the feet and close the distance, he can win this fight. I see Neer taking this fight by decision, winning two of the three rounds on the judges cards.
(If you find a prop bet on fight of the night, you should strongly consider this one.)
Odds: even Reach: 70 in Record: 21-11 UFC Record: 7-6 Last 5: 3-2 Streak: +2
50% Fights Won 45% Striking Accuracy 25% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 81% TAKEDOWNS 11% SUBMISSIONS 8%
Win Breakdown 57% (4) DECISIONS 29% (2) KO/TKOS 14% (1) SUBMISSION
Odds: -110 Reach: 73 in Record: 32-10-1 UFC Record: 5-6 Last 5: +5 Streak: +5
45% Fights Won 45% Striking Accuracy 47% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 39% TAKEDOWNS 18% SUBMISSIONS 43%
Win Breakdown 40% (2) SUBMISSIONS 40% (2) DECISIONS 20% (1) KO/TKO
Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton (135) vs. Jared Papazian (135.5)
This is a favorite you should play as I am an honest believer in the “Octagon jitters” theory. The UFC is a different atmosphere to fight, and even fighters who have been known to never make excuses when losing, have spoken it to be a very real thing. My stats are a little low on facts because Papazian is making his UFC debut, but I have seen tape on him.
Easton seems to be the better striking when I compare the two, and I say that because of the way he turns the corners and picks his shots. I don’t think Papazian is in over his head in this fight, but I think he is taking a pretty big step up in competition.
I think Easton gets the finish in this bout, and wins by TKO in the second frame.
Odds: -330 Reach: 70 in Record: 11-1 UFC Record: 1-0 Last 5: +5 Streak: +6
100% Fights Won 37% Striking Accuracy 0% Takedown Accuracy
Win Breakdown 100% (1) KO/TKO
Odds: +300 Reach: Record: 14-6 UFC Record: 0-0 Last 5: 4-1 Streak: +3