You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > UFC 148 Betting Picks: Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin
Posted on July 7, 2012 by Jack Thurman
The semifinal event on the UFC 148 undercard will pit a couple of long in the tooth veterans against each other as Forrest Griffin takes on Tito Ortiz for the third time. The two fights both ended in decision with each man claiming a victory. Griffin won the most recent bout at UFC 106 by split decision while Ortiz took the victory at UFC 59.
Ortiz is suggesting that this will be his retirement fight but realistically both men should have called it a career by this point. Both are well past their competitive prime and are nearing the point where they’re putting their long term health at risk by soldiering on. Obviously fighters have a hard time stepping away from the spotlight and the lack of marketable stars on the UFC roster has kept them in the sport and fighting high on the card.
Ortiz has lost 6 of his last eight fights–he earned a draw against Rashad Evans at UFC 73 and defeated an overmatched Ryan Bader at UFC 142. Before the win over Bader, Ortiz’s previous victories were against a completely shot Ken Shamrock (twice) meaning his last significant victory was against his opponent tonight in 2006. Griffin has lost three of his last five fights with one victory against Ortiz and the other against another member of the UFC’s ‘old timers’ division, Rich Franklin. His last significant victory was his UFC light heavyweight title winning effort against Quinton ‘Rampage’ Jackson at UFC 86 in 2008.
So how do you handicap a fight between two past their prime competitors who haven’t won a meaningful fight in over four years? Very carefully. Ortiz is the superior wrestler and at one point had the most brutal ‘ground and pound’ in the sport–in fact, he can be considered one of the pioneers of the now ubiquitous offensive strategy. At this point, however, his fight strategy is usually one of survival where he looks for a takedown and tries to control his opponent in hopes of winning a decision.
Griffin is a better standup fighter but that’s more by default than anything else at this point. He’s never had great one punch KO power and has usually been content to outwork his opponent and grind out a decision. His last KO victory came over Elvis Sinosic at UFC 55 in 2005. Ortiz has been succeptable to stoppage in the later part of his career–his last two defeats and 3 of his last 7 came via KO/TKO. That being said, it’s unlikely that Griffin has enough firepower to end this one early.
The betting position in this bout is dictated by the betting line. Griffin is a -290 favorite which is completely unfathomable at this stage of his career. That is likely due to the public perception that Ortiz is a ‘shot fighter’ which may be correct but Griffin is in the same boat. We’ll take the big underdog price on Tito Ortiz in a fight that will be closer than the line suggests. He’s got a good chance of winning a decision victory in a fight that should be short on fireworks and long on ground control.
Bet Tito Ortiz +245 over Forrest Griffin Bet Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin Over 2.5 rounds -240