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Posted on September 23, 2011 by John Petit

UFC 135 Main Card By The Numbers Breakdown And Quick Picks
Light Heavyweight Championship:  
Jon Jones (Champion) vs.  Quinton Jackson

Jon Jones (champion)

88% Fights Won
53% Striking Accuracy
72% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -500
Reach: 84.5 in
Record: 13-1
UFC Record: 7-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +4

Quinton Rampage Jackson

74% Fights Won
58% Striking Accuracy
64% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +420
Reach: 73 in
Record: 32-8
UFC Record: 7-2
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +2

Being billed as an old school versus new school match, the youngest champion in UFC history Jon Jones is squaring off against former Pride and UFC champion Quinton Rampage Jackson. Jone’s reach will be the story in this fight as Jackson will have to get inside the 11.5 inch reach advantage just to trade with Bones, and that will be difficult to do with a dynamic striker like Jones. I see Bones hurting Jackson at some point in the third round, and either secure a submission from the top position or finish Jackson with strikes.

Welterweight bout:  
Matt Hughes vs. Josh Koscheck

Matt Hughes

75% Fights Won
55% Striking Accuracy
51% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +400
Reach: 73 in
Record: 46-8
UFC Record: 18-6
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: -1

Josh Koscheck

72% Fights Won
37% Striking Accuracy
55% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -600
Reach: 73 in
UFC Record: 13-5
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: -1

Josh Koscheck is coming in as a late replacement for Diego Sanchez, and is coming off of a loss to GSP where he injured his eye. Hall of Famer Matt Hughes is coming off a loss to BJ Penn where he was knocked out early in the fight. I see Koscheck getting the win, but if you like Hughes to get the win you may want to take advantage of these odds. Hughes at +400 could earn you some serious scratch, and if Hughes can jab that eye and mix it up with take downs he could get the win. However, Koscheck has been wanting to fight Hughes for a while and will come in motivated to get the win by a close decision.

Lightweight bout:  
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi

Nate Diaz

64% Fights Won
35% Striking Accuracy
30% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -280
Reach: 76 in
Record: 13-7
UFC Record: 8-5
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -2

Takanori Gomi

74% Fights Won
40% Striking Accuracy
70% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +210
Reach: 70 in
Record: 13-7 (1nc)
UFC Record: 1-2
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: -1

This could be a close fight, but Nate Diaz really needs a win in this fight. He holds a distinct advantage over Takanori Gomi, as his brother Nick Diaz once fought Gomi and defeated him (the fight was later turned in a no contest.) There is no chance that Nate didn’t help Nick prepare for that fight, and Nate was more than likely cageside for the bout. Look for Nate to use his striking and reach to keep Gomi on the outside, but don’t be surprised to see Nate go to the floor for a submission. He has always been sharp on the floor, and he trains with arguably the best grapplers/bjj players on the planet. Nate gets the TKO in this one late in the fight.

Heavyweight bout:  
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton

Travis Browne

67% Fights Won
37% Striking Accuracy
75% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -375
Reach: 78 in
Record: 11-0-1
UFC Record: 2-0-1
Last 5: 4-0-1
Streak: +1

Rob Broughton

100% Fights Won
68% Striking Accuracy
0% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +300
Reach: 74 in
Record: 15-5-1
UFC Record: 1-0
Last 5: +5
Streak: +5

The UFC is looking for someone to step up and challenge some of the top tier Heavyweights because right now it seems like some rematches are on the horizon. They need someone to win some bigger fights to do that, and that’s what they are looking for in this fight. Broughton is one of the UK’s best heavyweights, and Browne put himself on the map with his win over Stefan Struve. Being Broughton’s first UFC fight, I think the Octagon jitters are going to be in full effect, and Browne will use his experience to find a way to win this fight. That happens most likely via decision, as Broughton has been pretty durable in the past.

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