You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC On FX Main Event: Guillard Vs. Miller
Posted on January 19, 2012 by John Petit
Lightweights Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller
One fighter in this bout is going to be catapulted back into the mix at the top of the lightweight division, and the fighter who loses will be handed his second straight loss. Jim Miller fought for the chance to face Frankie Edgar against Bendon Henderson and fell short, and Melvin Guillard ran into Joe Lauzon who overcame 4 to 1 odds by beating him.
Guillard will be looking to stand and trade with Jim Miller, and he is making no secret about his intentions. Guillard certainly posseses the ability to put Miller out cold, but watching his fights I have never seen Miller even rocked in a fight. Guillard will have to do his best to keep Miller at the end of his punches, and keep him in a reactionary frame of mind top keep him from setting up.
Miller is going to have a slight mental edge in this fight, but only because of what just happened to Guillard in his fight against Lauzon. Lauzon is a capable fighter, but he isn’t know for his striking. Lauzon’s striking was enough to discombobulate Guillard long enough to get the submission win. That should be Miller’s game plan in this fight. Miller has no problem giving a punch to take a punch, and that’s what he does to set up his take downs. The other feather in Miller’s cap is that out of Guillard’s 9 losses have come by submission.
I think when Guillard figures out that he can’t land cleanly on Miller, he will get frustrated and become even more susceptible to the take down. I see Miller grind out a decision, or getting a hold of a submission late in the fight.
Here is a look at the numbers:
Odds: +145 Reach: 71 in Record: 29-9-2 (1) UFC Record: 10-5 Last 5: 4-1 Streak: -1
67% Fights Won 40% Striking Accuracy 76% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 47% TAKEDOWNS 47% SUBMISSIONS 7%
Win Breakdown: 70% (7) TKO/KO 30% (3) Decision
Odds:-165 Reach:71 in Record: 20-3 UFC Record: 9-2 Last 5: 4-1 Streak: -1
82% Fights Won 34% Striking Accuracy 47% Takedown Accuracy
Style: STRIKING 19% TAKEDOWNS 23% SUBMISSIONS 58%
Win Breakdown: 44% (4) DECISIONS 33% (3) SUBMISSIONS 22% (2) KO/TKO