You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC On FUEL 1: Herman Vs. Struve

Posted on February 14, 2012 by John Petit

Breaking Down UFC On FUEL 1: Herman Vs. Struve
UFCDiegoSanchezJakeEllenbergerFuelTVPoster
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I have to say this right off the top, I am a little surprised by the odds in this bout, and I’m not really sure why Dave Herman is a favorite by that much. In Herman’s debut in the UFC he welcomed Jon Olav Einemo to the Octagon as well, and finished him via technical knock out. He was then scheduled to fight Mike Russow, but tested positive for marijuana and was suspended. I am not saying this fight is a shoe in for Struve, because Herman can win, but at the very least there are some unanswered questions about him.

My main complaint with Struve has always been that he doesn’t use his reach to his advantage as well as he should. Thats what surprised the most about his win over Pat Barry, was how well he kept Barry at distance. We already know Struve is dangerous on the ground, as he has 15 submissions on his pro record, his long frame make him a handful BJJ novices. If Herman’s plan is to take Struve down, he needs to be very technical inside Struve’s guard. Flailing in with punches to engage is a bad idea for a guy like Herman, if Struve is on his back.

Herman is going to want to get inside and try to wear down Struve in the clinch. He is going to want to press the Dutchman against the fence, and control him with dirty boxing. The uglier this fight looks, the more of a chance Herman has. I just don’t see him being able to match the experience that Struve has. He is susceptible to the big hit, and Herman knows he is going to have to take some shots in order to land something big. Herman has only been finished once in his career, and he has never been submitted.

If Struve can keep the distance on Herman, like he did against Barry, he should be able to stun Herman with a shot and get the submission. In the Barry fight, Struve had to eat some leg kicks in order to get the win, but I think Struve would definitely be able to grab one of those if Herman decided to go that way. I think Struve because the first man to submit to Herman, and I think it will happen late in the fight.

 

Heavyweight bout:
Stefan Struve Vs Dave Herman                                                                                                                                                                                                                               

Name

Odds

Height

Reach

Stance

Age

Record

UFC Record

Last 5

Streak

Average Fight Time

STRIKING

Striking Accuracy

Defense

GRAPPLING

Take down Accuracy

Take down Defense

Stefan Struve

+120

6′ 11″

83.0″

Orthodox

23

22-5

6-3-0

3-2

+1

5:00

47%

54%

67%

0%

Dave Herman

-140

6′ 4″

76.0″

Orthodox

27

21-2

1-0-0

4-1

+3

4:10

57%

51%

100%

75%

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