You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC On FOX: Davis Vs Evans
Posted on January 28, 2012 by John Petit
If Rashad Evans manages to pull the win out over Phil Davis in the main event at UFC On FOX he finally gets his title shot. To make it even sweeter, if he manages to stay healthy he could face his former training partner and current nemesis Jonny Bones Jones. Phil Davis plans to spoil all those plans and show Evans that life isn’t fair sometimes. We have two accomplished wrestlers competing for five rounds, and there is always the chance this could turn into a grinding ground war that some fans won’t enjoy. There is also the chance the wrestling skills of both cancel each other out, and we have a slug fest until someone drops.
I have had faith in Evan’s hands for a long time. They improved greatly while he was on the ultimate fighter, and he has been improving ever since. With a long lay off before his last fight, Evans showed zero cage-rust and finished Tito Ortiz like he should have. I recall being laughed at when I predicted that Evans would knockout Chuck Lidell, and he did just that. Also, since then Evans has changed camps, but it hasn’t effected his game at all so far. Evans has also been able to meld his striking with his takedowns and is able to keep his opponents guessing as to what is coming next.
Phil Davis has decent striking, and a solid grappling pedigree. My main concern in this bout for Davis is his experience, as he has never fought on this big of stage and has never even trained for a 5 round fight before. He has shown some decent kicking, but if he is going to kick in this fight he better keep them low. Evans will take him down every time he throws a body kick. Davis will also have the edge in momentum as he is still undefeated in his MMA career. If Davis can handle Evans in this fight, he MIGHT get the shot as well, but he will have to do it spectacularly to get Jones.
I have to stick with odds on this one, and go with the favorite. We are going to learn a lot about both fighters in this bout, but I think Evans can win three out of the five rounds and work his way to a decision. Evans has more to win, and he won’t be trash talking in the octagon as Davis is punching him like he did when he was KO’d against Machida. Davis can win this, but he will need alot of things to go his way. Below are the numbers:
Style: STRIKING 26% TAKEDOWNS 74% SUBMISSIONS 0%
Odds: -170 Reach: 75 In Record: 16-1-1 UFC Record: 11-1-1 Last 5: 4-1 Streak: +3
Style: STRIKING 33% TAKEDOWNS 43% SUBMISSIONS 24%
Odds:+150 Reach: 79 in Record: 9-0 UFC Record: 5-0 Last 5: 5-0 Streak +9