You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC Fight Night 25: The Rest Of The Card
Posted on September 17, 2011 by John Petit
I did an extensive breakdown yesterday on the main event for the UFC FIGHT NIGHT 25 card, but here is the rest of the story in a short run down. I added the odds for you last minute MMA gamblers, and you know who you are!
Middleweight bout: Court McGee 184.5 lbs Vs Dongi Yang 186 lbs
You can find McGee for about -180, and Yang as high +164. This is one of those fights that I can see Yang winning, but I don’t see it happening tonight. McGee is a handful, and his win over Ryan Jensen has merit as Jensen was a solid test for him. Yang will want to stand and trade with McGee, and McGee will oblige him late in the fight after he wears him down. McGee will get the late TKO in this one.
Featherweight bout: Jonathan Brookins 145.5 lbs Vs. Erik Koch 146 lbs
Brookins is coming in at +240 and Koch can be found at -240 if you look hard enough. Koch is going to come out and try to turn this fight into a fight of the night candidate by picking apart Brookins, and Brookins is going to try and turn this into one of the fights striking fans hate. Brookins is going to be able to get Koch down from the outside, and will have to clinch to do so-where he excels. Koch’s job is to stay on the outside and pick apart Brookins who will be difficult to put away. Koch is going to take this one by decision, but Brookins will be game the whole time.
Middleweight bout: Alan Belcher 186 lbs Vs. Jason MacDonald 185 lbs
Belcher is coming in around -240, and you can find MacDonald coming in at +250. Belcher has many more ways to win this fight then MacDonald, and when Belcher is on he is plenty of fun to watch. He is aggressive on the ground and on his feet, and he will be looking to roll right over MacDonald. MacDonald is ok on the feet, but is going to be looking to take this to the ground. This is a style nightmare for MacDonald, and I see him getting finished with strikes in the second round.
Lightweight bout: Cody McKenzie 155.5 lbs Vs. Vagner Rocha 155.5 lbs
Rocha is coming in at -240 and McKenzie is coming in at +165. McKenzie submitted ten straight fighters with guillotines until he fought Yves Edwards who really exploited his stand up and defeated him. Rocha knows enough on the ground not to fall for the ole’ guillotine, and knows plenty of tricks on the feet to terrorize McKenzie with. Rocha will use his striking and his ability to scramble on the floor to stay out of submission attempts to win this one by decision.
Lightweight bout: Evan Dunham 156 lbs Vs. Shamar Bailey 156 lbs
Dunham can be found as low as -500 and Bailey as high as +370. Everything will have to go perfectly for Bailey to win this fight, and he will have to follow a masterful game plan to pull it off. Dunham is coming off a brutal KO less against Melvin Guillard, and will be looking to destroy someone. Dunham takes this one by TKO in the second when he overhwelms Bailey with his hands.
Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle 171 lbs Vs. Lance Benoist 170.5 lbs
Riddle is coming in at -225 and Benoist is coming in at +185. This is a big step up for Benoist, and he is fighting a fighter who is still showing plenty of improvement each time he fights. Riddle finishes this one in the first round by TKO.
Bantamweight bout: Ken Stone 136 lbs Vs. Donny Walker 135.5 lbs Stone is coming in at -180 and Walker is coming in at +145. Walker has a lot to prove in this fight, and Stone can’t afford another loss in the UFC. Stone will get the top position on Walker in the third round, and finish him via ground and pound.
Welterweight bout: Clay Harvison 170 lbs Vs. Seth Baczynski 171 lbs
Baczynski can be found at -189 and Harvison can be found at +155. Baczynski will be looking to make Harvison fight his fight, and muscle him around the whole fight. He will be able to do that, and use his reach to mark up Harvison on his way to a win by TKO in the second round.
Welterweight bout: TJ Waldburger 171 lbs Vs. Mike Stumpf 171 lbs
Waldburger is coming in at -250 and Stumpf is coming in at +210. Waldburger will suck the new comer into the late rounds, and either finish him or get the decision. Stumpf has an uphill battle, and its his first time in the octagon.
Featherweight bout: Mike Lullo 146 lbs Vs. Robert Peralta 145.5 lbs
Lullo is coming in at +140 at Peralta is coming in at -160. I think Lullo surprises Peralta with is superior grappling, and I see Lullo grabbing a limb late in the first round to get the submission win,
Welterweight bout: Justin Edwards 171 lbs Vs. Jorge Lopez 171 lbs
Lopez is coming at -500 and Edwards at +325. Although Lopez is a new comer in the UFC, look for him to overwhelm Edwards early in the second round with strikes. Its hard to predict what is going to happen the first time a fighter gets in the Octagon, However, the momentum behind Lopez will be way to much for Edwards.