You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC 144: Main Event Frankie Edgar Vs Benson Henderson
Posted on February 24, 2012 by John Petit
There was a time when this fight was close to happening. A few things would have needed to happen like Anthony Pettis missing ‘The Showtime’ kick, and Frankie Edgar Vs. Gray Maynard 2 would have had to have a winner. Former WEC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson has always wanted to fight in the UFC, and there were times when people scoffed at him when he said things like the WEC fighters could keep up with the upper echelon of the UFC’s division. Now he is on the doorstep of picking up MMA’s top achievement in the lightweight division.
For Frankie Edgar, the current Lightweight Champion, this is the first time since early 2010 he hasn’t fought a guy with the last name Penn or Maynard. His last four fights have ended with his hand raised, even though the Edgar/Maynard 2 was a draw, and now one can’t help themselves into believing what Frankie Edgar is capable of. Dana White doesn’t even think he is a legit lightweight, and that he should cut the ten pounds and fight Jose Aldo. However, here he is on his fourth lightweight title defense, and really driving home the point that he is the best lightweight fighter on the planet once and for all.
We know what Frankie Edgar is going to want to do in this fight. Although he is the shorter fighter, he has a 1 or 2 inch reach advantage over Henderson, and he will want to look to exploit that with using his footwork and speed. Edgar can knock guys out, just look at the Maynard fight, but what is more consistent is his footwork in the cage and how he engages fighters in exchanges. He always has a quick way in, and a quick way out. Henderson is going to want to slow this fight down, and make it hard for him to run around and strike with him, and most of his game planning should be built around avoiding that from happening.
If you don’t know why they call Henderson “The Smooth One,” you have probably never seen him fight before. He is big, he is strong, he has some top shelf wrestling and grappling, and he is very flexible and next to impossible to submit. On the ground he is constantly trying to neutralize his opponent, all while running submission chains on them. If Henderson has his way with you on the ground, its art. Henderson has to think that Edgar is coming into this fight with a strike and bike philosophy. Its going to be like Edgar is on wheels in this fight, and moving around all over the place. He is going to want to cut the Octagon off on Edgar, and really make him fight his way out of the corners or off the fence. The more this fight looks like a clinch war, the more likely Henderson will win. From there he can use inside trips and foot sweeps to try and get Edgar down. It will be very difficult to get Edgar down, and its going to be even harder to keep him there.
Frankie Edgar has a fight on his hands as Benson Henderson isn’t the guy who fades at the end and isn’t willing to take chances. He is a finisher, and should be considered a live threat for the full 25 minutes. With that said, I think this Frankie Edgar’s fight. I think he has experienced, and calm enough to handle the style of Henderson to draw this into a five round battle. I am not sure the fact that this is happening in Japan will play into the fight at all, and Edgar’s and Henderson’s gas tank, but you should keep it in mind if you planning on betting a large sum of money. I think Henderson picks up a few rounds in this fight, but I see Edgar doing more than sticking and moving to out point Bendo at the end of five rounds.
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Ben Henderson
Average Fight Time