You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC 143 Main Event: Nick Diaz Vs Carlos Condit
Posted on February 3, 2012 by John Petit
If you can’t get excited for a fight like Nick Diaz Versus Carlos Condit, you need to reevaluate why you are a fan of mixed martial arts. Of the 100 bouts already announced for 2012, I have been looking forward to this pairing the most. Two guys who know how to finish fights, both from what are considered to be the number 1 and number 2 schools/academies to date, and both with master game planners. I haven’t even brought up that these are the most well rounded fighters in the welterweight divisions, and no I didn’t forget about Georges St. Pierre. In the past few months, Condit had signed bout agreements to fight GSP, B.J. Penn, and Josh Koscheck. He never stepped into the cage against any of them for one reason or another, but all that changes Saturday night at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Both fighters are predominantly strikers, and even when they get submission wins in their bouts, they set them up with strikes. While Condit is more of a Muay Thai type of stand up fighter, Diaz is more of a boxer who has added kicks to his arsenal to confuse his opponents as to where the next strike is coming from. What will surprise most casual MMA fans is the fact that Condit is more of a finisher than Diaz. Out of his 27 wins, only one of them was a decision victory (the bout Jake Ellenberger who had only been finished once in his career.) Condit likes to act fast in his fights, in fact Condit was 15-2 before he ever saw the second round of a fight. He will take risks early and often to create openings that will set up finishes, but its important to mention one of those losses was in 2004 where he fought 6 times. Condit has never been finished with strikes, but he has been finished 3 times via submission.
Nick Diaz, who’s training partner Jake Shields holds a decision win over Condit, hasn’t been beaten since 2007 where he lost to KJ Noons. However, it was a cut that stopped the fight. He has a No Contest against Takanori Gomi (who he finished via gogoplata,) but that decision came about when he tested positive for marijuana. Prior to that, Diaz hasn’t been beaten since UFC 59 where Sean Sherk won a decision over him. He has been stopped once to strikes, but that was a decade ago. Diaz’s dexterity and athleticism is where he really pulls away from pack. Diaz is not only competitive in MMA, but he also regularly competes in tri athalons and does very well. This type of conditioning lets him keep up a furious pace and throw a barrage of strikes that almost doesn’t let his opponents have the chance to even set up their own. He seems to spend the early parts of fights sizing his opponents up, and when he finally has the timing down he turns into a human wood-chipper.
Hanging out at the end of Diaz’s punches will certainly mean an early night for him, and while taking Diaz down (which is hard to do to) will win him rounds, its a dangerous gamble every time he does so. Diaz will not let you just lay on top of him. Condit will want to force tie ups, and try to win striking exchanges on the inside with Diaz. Unfortunately, that’s a lesser of three evils decision for Condit. Diaz is no slouch on the inside, and is the least likely fighter to get worn out in the UFC today. Condit is a durable fighter, but I think after three rounds of exchanging with Diaz the punches will add up. I think Condit will either get dropped, or be forced to shoot on Diaz. I think that’s when Diaz goes in for the finish and gets the submission win. When you look at the quality of opponents, and the way Diaz has put those guys away, its really hard for me to pick against him. Make no mistake about it though, Condit is going to bring an aggressive fight to Nick on Saturday, and this fight could be one for the ages. My pick is Diaz by submission in the fourth round, but my advice to bettors is to play this one carefully. Its a real gamble to throw a lot of money at this fight because of how interesting the match up is.
Odds: -185 Reach: 74 in Record: 26-7-1 UFC Record: 7-4 Last 5: +5 Streak: +11
Odds: +160 Reach: 76 inches Record: 27-5 UFC Record: 4-1 Last 5: 4-1 Streak: +4