You are here: Home > Betting Analysis > Breaking Down UFC 135 Under Card; By The Numbers And Quick Picks

Posted on September 23, 2011 by John Petit

Breaking Down UFC 135 Under Card; By The Numbers And Quick Picks
UFC-135-JonesvsRampage
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Lightweight bout:  
Tony Ferguson vs. Aaron Riley

Tony Ferguson
100% Fights Won
55% Striking Accuracy
67% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -340
Reach: 76 in
Record: 11-2
UFC Record: 1-0
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +4

Aaron Riley
50% Fights Won
39% Striking Accuracy
35% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +280
Reach: 69 in
Record: 30-12-1
UFC Record: 3-2
Last 5: 3-2
Streak: +1

Riley brings in a respectable experience level you can’t teach to new fighters, and he relies on that in his fights. Ferguson is coming in with a large reach advantage and a decent boxing-esque arsenal of strikes. Riley is going to want to close the distance, and that happens to be the area where Ferguson shines. Riley has an excellent chin, and he will need it in this fight, but I think Ferguson will find a way to finish this fight. I see Ferguson landing a take down on tired Riley, and finishing the fight from the top  via strikes in the second round. Make sure you see this fight as it should be an exciting one.

Middleweight bout:  
Nick Ring vs. Tim Boetsch

Nick Ring

100% Fights Won
44% Striking Accuracy
83% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +135
Reach: 74 in
Record: 12-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Last 5: +5
Streak: 12

Tim Boetsch

57% Fights Won
51% Striking Accuracy
48% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -155
Reach: 74 in
Record: 13-4
UFC Record: 4-3
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +1

Nick Ring is going to want to box in this fight, and Boetsch is going to want to brawl. Thats if RIng is lucky, Boetsch could decide to take this fight to the ground and pound his way to a decision. However, Boetsch thinks he is better on the floor, and he has better hands then Ring. Ring will want to be extremely accurate with his strikes, and use leg kicks to take the wind out of the sails of Boetsch. Especially at the beginning of the bout. I see Boetsch getting comfortable on the feet with Ring, and scoring timely take downs to pound on Ring towards the end of rounds. Boetsch wins this one by a close decision.

Bantamweight bout:  
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Cole Escovedo

Takeya Mizugaki

43% Fights Won
30% Striking Accuracy
92% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -210
Reach: 69.5 in
Record: 14-6-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -1

Cole Escovedo

40% Fights Won
43% Striking Accuracy
0% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +175
Reach: 72 in
Record: 17-7
UFC Record: 0-1
Last 5: 2-3
Streak: -1

Mizugaki is going to come forward and force exchanges. That is the only way he really knows how to fight, it is a very dangerous game plan sometimes because he doesn’t protect his face as well as he should, but it’s loads of fun to watch.  Escovedo will be looking to trade, and Mizugaki will oblige him in this fight. Escovedo will sometimes give up take downs to work his BJJ game, which is pretty good, but a sprawl and brawl game plan should win him this fight. If he can work the leg kicks on Mizugaki early in the fight, Escovedo cans low him down and out point him in a close decision.

Light Heavyweight bout:  
James Te Huna vs. Ricardo Romero

James Te Huna

50% Fights Won
48% Striking Accuracy
43% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: -160
Reach: 75 in
Record: 12-5
UFC Record: 1-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: -1

Ricardo Romero

50% Fights Won
48% Striking Accuracy
43% Takedown Accuracy

Odds: +140
Reach: 76 in
Record: 11-2
UFC Record: 1-1
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: -1

Two guys who need wins are colliding here, and its somewhat of a grappeler vs striker match in that Romero will want to take this to the floor because of Te Huna’s difficulties there in the past. Romero is a better athlete with a more than adequate jiu jitsu game that I expect will give Te Huna problems early in the fight. Both have shown to be game fighters that have fought through serious injuries to earn wins in the past, but the loser could end up getting his pink slip. Romero gets this win by submission early in the fight.

Featherweight bout:  
Junior Assunção vs. Eddie Yagin

Junior Assunção
Odds: +110
Reach: 72 in
Record: 12-4
UFC Record: 1-1
Last 5: +5
Streak: +6

Eddie Yagin
Odds: -130
Reach: n/a
Record: 15-4-1
UFC Record:0-0 (*ufc debutt)
Last 5: 4-1
Streak: +2

Assunção has developed a solid stand up arsenal, but I think the quickness of Yagin and his ability to throw combinations will be able to confuse him some. I expect Assunção to land a solid left hand right down the pipe that will remind Yagin that he is in the cage with a dangerous man,  and Yagin will then rely on his take downs and ground and pound to grind out a victory. I think Yagin will be able to do this at least 2 rounds if not 3, and earn himself a decision win.

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